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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that proposals for a peace deal developed with US officials could be completed in a matter of days. Afterward, U.S. representatives will present the terms to the Russian leadership.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Significant Progress, But Key Hurdles Persist

After two days of discussions in Berlin, American negotiators indicated on Monday that around “90%” of the contentious issues between Moscow and Kyiv had been resolved. Despite this optimistic assessment, an actual conclusion to the conflict is not guaranteed, especially given Russia's absence from the ongoing discussions.

In the early hours of Tuesday, the Ukrainian president noted that the American legislature was anticipated to vote on defense assurances and that a finalised set of agreements could be prepared “today or tomorrow.” He added that, the U.S. would engage in discussions with Russian representatives, potentially followed by high-level meetings possibly this coming weekend.

Defense Assurances and International Support

“We are counting on five documents. Some of them concern security guarantees: formally ratified, that is, approved and endorsed by the United States Congress,” Zelenskyy commented to journalists. He clarified that these assurances would “reflect article 5” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Earlier, American representatives declined to give specific details regarding the likely contents of the defense package or what would happen if Russia attempted to seize more land after a peace deal. Officials did confirm that the U.S. has no plans to place boots on the ground in Ukraine.

Leaders from the UK, France, Germany and several additional European nations said in a unified declaration that troops from a “allied coalition” could “assist in the rebuilding of Ukrainian military capabilities, in protecting Ukraine’s skies, and in ensuring safer seas, potentially by operating inside its territory.”

However, they did not suggesting these measures would constitute assurances equivalent to NATO's Article 5. Furthermore, there is scant indication that Moscow is near accepting the kind of arrangement being negotiated between Washington and Kyiv.

Moscow's Stance and Territorial Dispute

On Tuesday, the Russian government stated it had not received the specifics of the proposals on security guarantees. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, declared that the country would not agree to forces of Nato countries being stationed in Ukrainian territory “under any circumstances.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian team and US negotiators remains the territorial question. One proposal centers on Ukraine relinquishing the areas of the Donbas region it currently controls, while Ukraine wants to freeze the lines. “We are discussing the territorial issue. You know, it is one of the key issues. Currently, there is no consensus on it yet,” the president remarked following the Berlin discussions.

The US negotiation team, led by two senior advisors, has proposed a middle-ground proposal. Under this plan would see Ukrainian forces pull back, but Russia would not move forward, with the demilitarised area becoming “an open economic area.” Moscow has suggested it could use police and national guard units rather than the military in such an area, implying it would still seek to control the territory.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘special economic zone’ does not mean under the control of Moscow. Not legally or in practice do we accept the Donbas region – its currently occupied areas – as Russian. Categorically,” said Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Possible Scenarios

It is not clear how the two sides will resolve the land question. The Ukrainian leader has earlier mentioned that a compromise solution like a free economic zone might be theoretically possible if the Ukrainian people voted for it in a referendum. The critical stumbling block is expected to arise when the plans are put to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has given no sign he is prepared to concede on his war aims.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will face exactly what we are encountering on our plane right now – instability,” said Zelenskyy, recording the comments after his plane departed from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will apply sanctions pressure and supply additional armaments if they reject the deal. In my view, that would be a fair request from Ukraine to the United States,” he added.